Bolivia: market size and outlook 2026–2031

How big the Bolivian economy is, what changed under Rodrigo Paz's government and what the IMF and the World Bank project. Every figure is sourced at the bottom; the reform scenario is ours and labelled as such.

Market size

A US$ 54 billion economy with world-scale resources

12.3 million people, exports growing again on the back of mining, and mineral reserves that foreign capital has barely touched.

US$ 53.7 bn

2026 nominal GDP projected by the IMF (at programme exchange rates)

[1]

US$ 9,661 M

2025 exports, +8% in value; minerals = 59%

[5]

23 Mt

identified lithium resources, #2 in the world after Argentina

[10]

US$ 1,020 M

gross FDI received in 2025 (net US$ 620 M); mining = 42%

[6]

US$ 2,030 M

gross FDI in 2013: double today's, with the same subsoil

[7]

US$ 3,933 M

net international reserves at 30.09.2026, mostly gold (peak: US$ 15,123 M in 2014)

[9]

Bolivia's exports 2015–2025US$ billion

Source: INE, compiled by IBCE (2023–2025 preliminary). 2025 by group: minerals US$ 5,714 M (59%), non-traditional US$ 2,838 M (29%), hydrocarbons US$ 1,110 M (11%, −34%). [5]

Minerals: production and reserves (USGS 2026)

Mineral	2025e production	World share	Reserves / resources
Lithium	2,400 t (Ministry of Mining)	≈15% of resources	23 Mt resources [10][15]
Silver	1,500 t	≈5.8%	22,000 t [11]
Tin	15,000 t	≈5.2%	400,000 t [12]
Antimony	5,000 t	≈4.5%	310,000 t [14]
Zinc	500,000 t	≈3.8%	n/a [13]

World share = our calculation on USGS figures (Bolivia production / world total 2025e; lithium: resources / ~150 Mt identified).

What changed

One year of Rodrigo Paz's government, after almost 20 years of MAS

Rodrigo Paz (centre-right) took office in November 2025. Verifiable facts, not promises:

Dec 2025
Fuel
Supreme Decree 5503 ended the blanket subsidy on gasoline and diesel; strikes followed and the scheme was renegotiated. The IMF programme foresees removing the remaining subsidies through an automatic pricing mechanism. [16][1]
Jan–Mar 2026
Multilaterals and ratings
IDB: US$ 4.5 bn package for 2026–2028 (IDB Invest up to US$ 450 M for the private sector). CAF: US$ 3.1 bn programme to 2030. Ratings: S&P CCC− to CCC+, Fitch CCC− to CCC, Moody's Caa3 to Caa2. [17][18][19]
Apr–May 2026
US and markets
Memorandum of understanding with the US on critical minerals. Bolivia returns to international markets with a US$ 1 bn sovereign bond. [21][20]
Jun 2026
Exchange rate
End of the fixed rate of Bs 6.96 per dollar: official and market rates unified, move to a more flexible regime. [1]
Aug 2026
Investment Law
Bill sent to Congress: one-stop shop, investment agency and a ban on unilateral expropriation by the Executive. Not passed as of end-October; the government announced a new version. [23][22]
Sep–Oct 2026
IMF programme
Congress approved and on 2 October the IMF Board authorised a 36-month EFF of ~US$ 1.9 bn, anchoring a package of over US$ 5 bn with the World Bank and the IDB. [3][2]

Forecasts

What the IMF and the World Bank project

Adjustment comes first: the IMF projects two more years of contraction and an «investment-led» recovery from 2028. The World Bank sees −2.8% in 2026 and −1.4% in 2027. [1][4]

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Real GDP, % (IMF)	−1.6	−3.0	−1.5	+0.5	+2.5	+2.9	+2.7
Average inflation, % (IMF)	19.5	12.7	15.8	8.2	7.3	5.8	5.0

2025 = actual. Projections from IMF report 26/259 (EFF programme); the October 2026 WEO repeats −3.0% and −1.5% for 2026–2027. Projected gross international reserves: US$ 5,734 M (2026) and US$ 7,297 M (2027). [1][4]

The IMF itself writes that its macro framework «only partially incorporates the potential growth gains from ongoing and planned reforms», leaving «meaningful upside risks» over the medium term. [1]

Scenario: how much it can grow if reforms passOur scenario, not a forecast

IMF baseline Reform scenario (ours)

We compare the IMF path with a reform scenario. It is not a prediction: it is a transparent calculation to size the upside if the investment, mining, hydrocarbons and lithium laws are passed.

Real GDP (2025 = 100): GDP_t = GDP_t−1 × (1 + g_t). Base: g_t = IMF. Reforms: g_t = IMF + 1.0 pp from 2028.

2026–2027 equal to the IMF in both cases: stabilisation costs the same.
+1.0 pp per year in 2028–2031 if the laws pass and private investment responds. Our assumption, grounded in the IMF's own statement of upside risks not included.
Investment sizing: if gross FDI returned to its 2013 level (US$ 2,030 M), that would be +US$ 1,010 M a year versus 2025, ≈1.9% of projected 2026 GDP.

Result: in 2031 real GDP ends 4.0% above 2025 in the IMF baseline and 8.1% above in the reform scenario. [1][7][6]

Regional precedent: Argentina

Under Javier Milei, Argentina's country risk fell from over 1,900 bp to around 410 bp and the RIGI incentive regime has 21 approved projects worth US$ 46.7 bn (Sept 2026). Even so, the IMF cut its 2026 growth to 2.1%: capital came through a specific legal regime, not just a change of government. In Bolivia that regime is the Investment Law, still pending. [27][28]

Risks, without the makeup

Recession and inflation. IMF: −3.0% in 2026 and −1.5% in 2027; average inflation of 12.7% and 15.8%. [1]
Laws not yet passed. The Investment Law stalled in Congress (objection: international arbitration and the Constitution). Mining, hydrocarbons and lithium bills are still pending. [22]
Social conflict. Road blockades in May–June 2026 (land law 1720, fuel, dollar shortage): at least 24 dead and a 90-day state of emergency. The COB union federation opposes the IMF programme. [25][26]
External liquidity. Reserves of US$ 3,933 M, mostly gold; ratings still in CCC / Caa2 territory. [9][19]
Legacy contracts. Lithium contracts with Chinese and Russian partners remain in force; the government said it will honour them while drafting a new law. [24]

How to get in now

The window is before the laws pass and the entry price rises: opportunity map, a seat at the table with the Government and a structured vehicle.

01
Interest and map
Tell us what you are looking for (sector, ticket, horizon). We return a map of the opportunity: who decides, which permits are needed, what is open today and what is not.
02
Table with the Government
We open the conversation at the level that decides: ministries, state companies, governorates. As private advisors, not lobbyists: we prepare the file and accompany every meeting.
03
Vehicle and execution
We structure the instrument (Bolivian S.A., offtake contract, tokenized asset) with local legal counsel, and execute from Tarija with public milestone reporting.

Full process, vehicles and disclaimers →

Bolivia: market size and outlook 2026–2031

A US$ 54 billion economy with world-scale resources

Minerals: production and reserves (USGS 2026)

One year of Rodrigo Paz's government, after almost 20 years of MAS

Fuel

Multilaterals and ratings

US and markets

Exchange rate

Investment Law

IMF programme

What the IMF and the World Bank project

Regional precedent: Argentina

Risks, without the makeup

How to get in now

Interest and map

Table with the Government

Vehicle and execution

Tell me more

Market analysis sources